Legislature(2003 - 2004)

02/04/2003 03:21 PM House O&G

Audio Topic
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
HB 57-ROYALTY GAS CONTRACTS                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
[Contains brief discussion of HB 69 by Chair Kohring]                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR KOHRING announced that the  committee would hear HOUSE BILL                                                               
NO. 57,  "An Act amending  the manner of determining  the royalty                                                               
received by  the state  on gas  production as  it relates  to the                                                               
manufacture of certain value-added products."                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Number 0173                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE CHENAULT,  sponsor, explained that HB  57 proposes                                                               
to  add "manufacturer"  as a  further entity  that may  claim the                                                               
benefit of the contract price  as a basis for determining royalty                                                               
due to the state for gas  production.  It amends AS 38.05.180(aa)                                                               
by  allowing  the  commissioner of  [the  Department  of  Natural                                                               
Resources  (DNR)] to  enter into  an  agreement to  accept a  gas                                                               
price  established  in  a  contract   "between  a  lessee  and/or                                                               
utility" as  the price for  the state's  royalty share.   He said                                                               
this amendment  would apply a similar  condition to manufacturers                                                               
of  value-added products  in  Alaska, which  to  his belief  will                                                               
allow manufacturers of value-added products  in Alaska to know up                                                               
front  what their  costs  are.   The way  royalty  is valued  and                                                               
arranged  currently,  by contrast,  up  to  five years  later  [a                                                               
manufacturer] could  be hit  with a higher  cost for  royalty gas                                                               
than what  is basically agreed  on in  a contract.   He explained                                                               
that  manufacturers  are looking  for  certainty  with regard  to                                                               
price, in order to determine what their costs are.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Number 0359                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE KERTTULA  paraphrased the  analysis in  the fiscal                                                               
note from the Division of Oil & Gas, which read in part:                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     Should   only   one   manufacturer   apply   under   AS                                                                    
     38.05.1880(aa),  the  state  could  lose  an  estimated                                                                    
     $36.6  million  in royalties  over  a  period of  seven                                                                    
     years.    However, proposed  amendments  in  HB 57  are                                                                    
     worded   more   broadly    than   just   one   company.                                                                    
     Interpretation   of  "manufacturer"   may  be   broadly                                                                    
     interpreted to apply to disposition  of all royalty gas                                                                    
     subject to in-state processing  (e.g. LNG).  Therefore,                                                                    
     this $36.6  million could significantly  understate the                                                                    
     total revenue  impact of  HB 57.   Furthermore,  a much                                                                    
     larger revenue impact could occur  with a major sale of                                                                    
     North Slope royalty gas.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE KERTTULA asked how the  division came up with that                                                               
amount.   She  also  expressed concern  about  the definition  of                                                               
"manufacturer".  She surmised that  it isn't the sponsor's intent                                                               
to include  LNG [liquefied natural  gas], a gas pipeline,  and so                                                               
forth, but  that it  is specifically for  one manufacturer  to be                                                               
able to apply.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE CHENAULT  clarified that it isn't  necessarily for                                                               
one  manufacturer,  and  that he  thinks  others  possibly  could                                                               
qualify.  He added, "It is not the  intent to apply this to a gas                                                               
pipeline or to  an LNG facility.  If ...  they meet the criteria,                                                               
then that would open the  door for the commissioner of Department                                                               
of Natural Resources to enter into  an agreement.  And ... that's                                                               
our interpretation of it."                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Number 0481                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE   KERTTULA   said   it  sounds   as   though   the                                                               
commissioner has some authority, but  as the bill is written, the                                                               
commissioner  "shall" do  that.   She  asked whether  there is  a                                                               
possibility under this,  if [a manufacturer] met  the criteria of                                                               
"value-added," that a  gas line or LNG would fit  under this and,                                                               
therefore,  the state  would give  up more  royalties.   She also                                                               
asked whether that is the intent.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE CHENAULT replied that the  intent is not to extend                                                               
it to  a gas pipeline or  "another LNG facility" unless  it meets                                                               
the criteria  stated in the  legislation.  Rather, the  intent is                                                               
to allow manufacturers  to know their costs up  front for royalty                                                               
gas  over time,  in order  to  make decisions  that affect  their                                                               
businesses.    He  expressed  interest  in  1)  keeping  Alaskans                                                               
working,  and 2)  promoting  in-state,  value-added products  for                                                               
Alaska's gas,  to better promote  Alaska's resources and  for the                                                               
state to get "more bang for our royalties."                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Number 0637                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE CHENAULT  returned attention  to the  fiscal note,                                                               
saying it  had been given to  him that morning.   He told members                                                               
that  he  didn't  know  how the  department  determined  the  $36                                                               
million and  hadn't heard an  explanation or seen the  numbers on                                                               
which it is  based.  He speculated that perhaps  the numbers were                                                               
derived  from  what  utilities  currently  pay  versus  what  the                                                               
industry pays on  the average.  He added that  he doesn't believe                                                               
[HB  57]  says a  manufacturer  will  get  the  same price  as  a                                                               
utility;  rather,   it  says  that   once  the  producer   and  a                                                               
manufacturer  agree to  a price,  the commissioner  would approve                                                               
that price relating to royalty.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  KOHRING offered  his understanding  that the  commissioner                                                               
would  have  discretion to  disapprove  such  an agreement.    If                                                               
information suggested it  would be a major financial  loss to the                                                               
state, for  example, [the commissioner]  could certainly  say no.                                                               
In response  to Representative Kerttula, he  asked whether anyone                                                               
was present or on teleconference  from the division.  He remarked                                                               
that he'd been given the fiscal  note a short time beforehand and                                                               
would  have expected  someone  from the  division  to defend  the                                                               
analysis.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Number 0811                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  CRAWFORD  offered  his   reading  that  the  bill                                                               
doesn't seem  to specifically rule  out LNG or NGLs  [natural gas                                                               
liquids].  He suggested a  smart lawyer possibly could argue that                                                               
once gas  is turned into  NGLs it becomes a  value-added product.                                                               
He  proposed that  the  committee could  establish  an intent  to                                                               
remove that ambiguity.  Representative  Crawford declared that he                                                               
wholeheartedly agrees with the bill,  but wants to ensure that it                                                               
does "what we intend it to do."                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE CHENAULT  asked whether the preference  is to have                                                               
LNG manufactured  in Alaska or  have raw gas shipped  Outside via                                                               
pipeline in order to have  value-added processing done elsewhere.                                                               
He also  asked, if that  were the  case, what "number  would that                                                               
incorporate, to want to see value added in the state."                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Number 0952                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE KERTTULA suggested  it will boil down  to how much                                                               
it costs [the state].  She  noted the need to hear testimony from                                                               
the division about that, and from the other testifiers.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG said  he shared Representative Kerttula's                                                               
concern.  He agreed with the  need to hear from the division, and                                                               
said he wanted to know more about what the bill does.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Number 1103                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MIKE NUGENT,  General Manager, Agrium Kenai  Nitrogen Operations,                                                               
informed members that his company's  Kenai operation uses natural                                                               
gas, which  it upgrades  along with water  and nitrogen  from the                                                               
air to make  ammonia and urea - referred to  as nitrogen products                                                               
- that are sold in the Pacific Rim.   As the company looks to the                                                               
future  and  develops natural  gas  supplies  from a  variety  of                                                               
producers in Cook Inlet, it will  be highly valuable to know what                                                               
that future  price is, in  order to determine profitability.   He                                                               
explained:                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     These would be arrangements  that we would establish at                                                                    
     an arm's  length with another producer,  and ... having                                                                    
     knowledge of what  the state's share is  also valued at                                                                    
     would be  very valuable in  making decisions.   Our ...                                                                    
     margins   are  fairly   thin,  just   like  any   other                                                                    
     manufacturer.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Number 1265                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT,  in response to Representative  Rokeberg, offered the                                                               
following history.  The facility was  built in 1968, with a major                                                               
expansion in 1977.   It was owned then by  Unocal; because Unocal                                                               
also was  the supplier and producer  of the natural gas  that fed                                                               
the  facility, there  was a  "state  royalty gas-valued  formula"                                                               
that valued  the state's portion  of the natural gas  supplied to                                                               
the plant and  that was hooked to the value  of the end products.                                                               
In  fall 2000,  the upgrade  facility  was sold  to Agrium;  thus                                                               
there were  two different owners:   the producer and  supplier of                                                               
the gas, and the operator of the plant.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR.  NUGENT  explained that  at  the  time  of sale,  Unocal  was                                                               
Agrium's sole  gas supplier  and Agrium  was Unocal's  sole large                                                               
industrial user of that gas.   However, Unocal has been unable to                                                               
deliver the  full amount of  gas needed  [by Agrium] in  order to                                                               
operate at capacity.  Therefore,  [Agrium] is starting to develop                                                               
relationships with other gas producers  and suppliers in order to                                                               
meet  both short-term  and long-term  needs.   The importance  of                                                               
knowing  the  future  costs  of those  gas  supplies  has  become                                                               
apparent.  Noting that the state  is a 12.5-percent owner of most                                                               
of that gas, Mr. Nugent said  the inability to predict gas prices                                                               
accurately adds risk to any  arrangements between the company and                                                               
the producer.  He highlighted some aspects of risk:                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     We're open to  audit for long periods of  time to where                                                                    
     we  could  have  to  pay  more  for  the  gas  than  we                                                                    
     originally   intended.   ...   Recently,   a   contract                                                                    
     developed  between  ENSTAR  [Natural Gas  Company]  and                                                                    
     Unocal to supply  gas to ENSTAR starting in  2004.  And                                                                    
     this is  an example  of what some  of that  future risk                                                                    
     might be:   that gas  contract values gas at  the NYMEX                                                                    
     [New York Mercantile Exchange] value.   And NYMEX value                                                                    
     of gas  today is about  $5.50, but we could  not afford                                                                    
      to purchase gas for $5.50 ... and make a profit.  So                                                                      
      that's an example ... of what some of the potential                                                                       
     risk might be to a facility like ours.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Number 1525                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG referred  to the  foregoing example  and                                                               
suggested  [such a  situation] could  be problematic.   He  asked                                                               
whether  such  a  contract  would be  adjusted  for  NYMEX  value                                                               
periodically.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT  indicated that basically  the contract has  a "floor"                                                               
of $2.75 and is  the NYMEX value of gas.  He  said he wasn't sure                                                               
whether it is adjusted monthly or annually.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG asked  whether typically  there is  some                                                               
type of periodic adjustment for the NYMEX or fair market value.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT  said relationships like  that would be very  risky or                                                               
would make [Agrium] nervous.  He  pointed out that Cook Inlet gas                                                               
isn't hooked to  any system in the Lower 48.   Therefore, if Cook                                                               
Inlet gas  were hooked by pipeline  to the Lower 48,  it wouldn't                                                               
trade at  the NYMEX value but  at the NYMEX value  discounted for                                                               
the  pipeline-system cost  to  get it  to the  Lower  48.   Again                                                               
noting that  the state is  a 12.5-percent  owner in that  gas, he                                                               
said arrangements like  that "by people other than  us could have                                                               
a detrimental  impact on our  business."  He added  that [Agrium]                                                               
is interested  in paying a  "fair value"  for the gas  and having                                                               
that price be predictable.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Number 1704                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
TADD OWENS, Executive Director,  Resource Development Council for                                                               
Alaska, Inc. (RDC),  testified in support of HB 57.   He informed                                                               
members  that  RDC  is  a  private  nonprofit  trade  association                                                               
representing  individuals and  companies  from  Alaska's oil  and                                                               
gas,  mining,  timber,  tourism, and  fisheries  industries;  its                                                               
mission  is to  help  grow Alaska's  economy through  responsible                                                               
development of the  state's natural resources.   He recalled that                                                               
in 2001 the  legislature adopted a declaration  of state economic                                                               
development  policy,  which in  part  asserts  that it  is  state                                                               
policy to  encourage value-added processing in  Alaska.  Offering                                                               
the belief that HB 57 advances this policy, he explained:                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     By  establishing the  contract price  as the  basis for                                                                    
     determining the  state's royalty share on  natural gas,                                                                    
     this   legislation   provides    both   producers   and                                                                    
     manufacturers  of  value-added  products  with  greater                                                                    
     certainty  regarding their  costs.   Reducing the  risk                                                                    
     associated  with the  state's royalty  share indirectly                                                                    
     reduces the overall risk of gas exploration in Alaska.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Cost  certainty and  risk reduction  are two  important                                                                    
     factors   in    encouraging   private-sector   economic                                                                    
     development in the state.   And it's important to note,                                                                    
     I  think,  that  we believe  the  proposed  legislation                                                                    
     provides the state - through  the commissioner of DNR -                                                                    
     with the  authority needed to  reject any  request that                                                                    
     would  be   detrimental  to   the  State   of  Alaska's                                                                    
     interests.   In  other  words, House  Bill  57, in  our                                                                    
     opinion,   finds   an   appropriate   balance   between                                                                    
     providing incentives  for manufacturers  of value-added                                                                    
     products and protecting the interests of the state.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Number 1858                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  KOHRING  asked  whether  anyone  else  wished  to                                                               
testify; there was no response.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT, in reply to  Representative Rokeberg, agreed that the                                                               
legislation would  only [apply to]  the portion of the  gas owned                                                               
by the state.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Number 1916                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG  asked  whether   Mr.  Nugent  knew  the                                                               
current amount of  RIK gas available in the Cook  Inlet area, and                                                               
asked about the allocation now.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT  offered his  understanding that  the state  owns 12.5                                                               
percent of  any gas sold, whether  to a utility or  [Agrium], and                                                               
receives  the revenues  from  that  stream.   He  added that  the                                                               
state's gas is not specifically  targeted to [Agrium], a utility,                                                               
or any one special [entity].                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG   said  he'd  assumed   the  legislation                                                               
related to  RIK gas.   He  asked whether, instead,  it is  just a                                                               
benchmark  price for  anybody who  establishes  a price,  without                                                               
"reopeners" after the price is established.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT clarified  that this isn't gas the State  of Alaska is                                                               
taking in kind.  Rather, it  is gas that the producer markets for                                                               
the state.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG  explained  that  his  concern  is  with                                                               
regard to the [$36-million] fiscal  note from the Division of Oil                                                               
& Gas, which  claims loss of state revenue.   Although he offered                                                               
his view that  [the division's estimate] may be off  the mark, he                                                               
indicated the need to understand it better.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT [who was testifying  via teleconference and presumably                                                               
hadn't seen  the fiscal note]  said he didn't have  any knowledge                                                               
of  what  is  behind  that   number,  either,  because  it  would                                                               
basically require predicting a future value for the gas.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG  indicated that  if the price  were lower                                                               
and there couldn't be a  "reopener" for a price adjustment, there                                                               
would be  a loss of  anticipated future income.   He said  he was                                                               
disturbed by it.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT said he'd have to see the detail as well.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG  added that  it scares the  daylights out                                                               
of him.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Number 2057                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  KERTTULA  concurred.   Referring  to  the  fiscal                                                               
note, she  suggested that in  order for  the committee to  make a                                                               
good  decision, and  to  avoid  possible unintended  consequences                                                               
that  could cost  the state  $36 million,  the following  must be                                                               
understood:  1) exactly how the  royalty would be figured on this                                                               
gas, 2)  what Agrium  or like businesses  pay in  royalties right                                                               
now, and  3) what  the reasonable likelihood  is that  [Agrium or                                                               
like  businesses]  would pay  in  the  future under  current  law                                                               
versus what this new legislation would do.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Number 2141                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE KERTTULA  requested that Mr. Nugent  or Ms. Parker                                                               
testify  about [the  division's  calculations on  page  2 of  the                                                               
fiscal  note  analysis,  in  the  portion  addressing  2000-2002,                                                               
rather than  the projections for  2003-2009].  She  observed that                                                               
on  page 2  it  says,  "The cumulative  impact  would  have  been                                                               
approximately $8.2  million in nominal  dollars."  She  asked Mr.                                                               
Nugent what he pays in royalty right now, as a starting point.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR.  NUGENT indicated  that is  a subject  of discussion  between                                                               
Unocal - Agrium's  producer - and DNR.  He  added that [Agrium's]                                                               
"total gas  bill to the  facility" was  $80 million; in  2002, it                                                               
was approximately $70  million.  He reiterated that  the state is                                                               
only a 12.5-percent owner.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Number 2214                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE KERTTULA asked whether  12.5 percent of [Agrium's]                                                               
$80 million  would be the  state's royalty share  and, therefore,                                                               
it totaled $8 million over the last two years in royalties.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT answered:                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     We  paid our  producer, in  2001, $80  million for  the                                                                    
     gas.   And that  was in  one year.   Last year,  it was                                                                    
     closer to  $70 million because we  didn't consume quite                                                                    
     as much  gas. ... The  royalty payment is a  subject of                                                                    
     discussion  for  those  two  years  right  now  between                                                                    
     Unocal and  the state.  But  if it was 12.5  percent of                                                                    
     what we  paid our producer,  then it doesn't  even come                                                                    
     close to ... $36 million.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE KERTTULA acknowledged that  Mr. Nugent didn't have                                                               
[the fiscal note].  She  said [the calculation] was averaged over                                                               
a period of  five years, to her  belief.  If it  was 12.5 percent                                                               
of the amount he'd just stated,  she suggested, it might be about                                                               
right.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Number 2273                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT added:                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     I guess  another way to look  at it, if I  might:  when                                                                    
     we were  part of  Unocal, what we  paid Unocal  in 2001                                                                    
     and 2002  basically followed the state  royalty formula                                                                    
     that was  in existence when Unocal  owned the property.                                                                    
     So  had  that  remained  one entity,  ...  the  royalty                                                                    
     payment would  have been  a clear  12.5 percent  ... of                                                                    
     that amount.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Number 2310                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG referred  to Table  1 on  page 2  of the                                                               
fiscal note.  He pointed out  that it indicates that if this bill                                                               
had been  in effect, the total  would have been $8.2  million [in                                                               
foregone  royalties  for  2000-2002].    For  2000,  it  shows  a                                                               
contract value of  $1.20 and a royalty value of  $1.70, for a 50-                                                               
cent difference  and $1.7 million  [in foregone royalties].   For                                                               
2001, it shows  a contract value of $1.38 and  a royalty value of                                                               
$2.20.  He asked Mr.  Nugent whether those numbers meant anything                                                               
to him in terms of the contract value and the royalty value.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT replied  that $1.38 is "within a couple  cents" and is                                                               
about what  [Agrium] paid  per thousand cubic  feet both  in 2001                                                               
and 2002.   He said it is  based on "the same  formula that would                                                               
have set the  state royalties value, had we still  been a part of                                                               
Unocal,  because  it was  based  on  the  value  ... of  our  end                                                               
product."                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG  again mentioned the figures  [for 2001]:                                                               
a royalty value of $2.20 and  [a contract value of] $1.38, for an                                                               
81-cent difference and $2.9 million in royalty foregone.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT  surmised that the  $2.20 might be the  current posted                                                               
value of  Cook Inlet gas  for utilities;  he asked Ms.  Parker to                                                               
help him out.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG pointed out that  the footnote [page 2 of                                                               
the fiscal  note] says  the forecast  [by the  Division of  Oil &                                                               
Gas] is  for $2.50  per [thousand cubic  feet (Mcf)]  today, with                                                               
$3.12 for  fiscal year (FY) 2009,  which is a DOR  [Department of                                                               
Revenue] present value (PV) calculation, to his belief.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Number 2464                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
LISA  PARKER, Government  & Community  Relations Advisor,  Agrium                                                               
U.S.,  suggested the  need to  ask DNR  where those  numbers came                                                               
from.   She  added that  the  State of  Alaska, under  "paragraph                                                               
(36),"  is supposed  to  get the  highest value  it  can for  its                                                               
royalty share.  She pointed out  that Agrium is a consumer of the                                                               
product  and isn't  engaged in  negotiations, or  privy to  them,                                                               
with regard to what price the  producer pays to the state for the                                                               
state's royalty share  of the gas.  The company  is only privy to                                                               
negotiations between it and the producer when buying gas.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG  replied that this  legislation endeavors                                                               
to remove  that uncertainty.   He offered his  understanding that                                                               
[Agrium]  is suggesting  there should  be  a stable  price for  a                                                               
longer period of time; typically,  however, there are "reopeners"                                                               
or   adjustments  for   "market-value   considerations"  in   the                                                               
negotiations between a producer and  the state.  He asked whether                                                               
he was on the right track.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MS.  PARKER affirmed  that  and added,  "But  that's between  the                                                               
producer and the  State of Alaska.  And we  just want a mechanism                                                               
where  the  producer can  ...  request  of  the state  that  they                                                               
establish,  as  their  royalty  price,  the  price  that  they've                                                               
negotiated with us ... as a consumer."                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Number 2598                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG  expressed  concern about  Mr.  Nugent's                                                               
remarks regarding the arrangement  between ENSTAR and Unocal, and                                                               
an  inability to  operate under  $5.50.   Noting that  the "NYMEX                                                               
price for future contracts" was in  the $5.70 range on the [news]                                                               
this morning - which he said  is an extremely high price that may                                                               
be  seasonal  and  war-related,   for  example  -  Representative                                                               
Rokeberg  asked  whether  there  is  a  certain  price  at  which                                                               
Agrium's operations will be in jeopardy  and no longer be able to                                                               
produce profitably.  He said he  didn't want to pry into Agrium's                                                               
business, but that Agrium was  asking [the legislature] to make a                                                               
policy  call here.   He  said he  believes the  public should  be                                                               
aware that there are realistic limits  to what [Agrium] can do to                                                               
operate profitably.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR.  NUGENT  answered  that  it  depends  on  the  value  of  the                                                               
company's product at the time,  which over the last several years                                                               
has  been   priced  fairly  low   because  of   various  economic                                                               
conditions  in the  world and  drought in  agricultural areas  of                                                               
North America.  In order for  the company to survive during those                                                               
low-price cycles, he reported, its  economic model generally says                                                               
it shouldn't pay more than $2.00 [per Mcf] for gas.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Number 2697                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG asked  whether Mr.  Nugent believes  the                                                               
export  value of  Alaska's  gas  may be  overstated  if Lower  48                                                               
measures  of  valuation  are used,  because  those  haven't  been                                                               
discounted  for  the  costs of  transportation  and  conditioning                                                               
necessary for transport.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT replied:                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     Yes.   I guess I was  trying to use that  as an example                                                                    
     of one of the extreme  cases that could take place that                                                                    
     we have  no control over,  and that was  an arrangement                                                                    
     agreed to  between ENSTAR and  Unocal.  And  it doesn't                                                                    
     have a lot of logic on  NYMEX value of gas because even                                                                    
     if our Cook Inlet system  was hooked into the Lower 48,                                                                    
     it would be discounted backwards  up the system to Cook                                                                    
     Inlet, and  it would  never have  a value  that equaled                                                                    
     NYMEX value.  So ...  the arrangement I've ... referred                                                                    
     to doesn't have  clear logic to it, and  I think that's                                                                    
     a  good example  of  some of  the  uncertainty that  we                                                                    
     don't want to expose ourselves to.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Number 2755                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG  asked:  If Alaskan  companies are making                                                               
these  apparently  arm's-length  transactions and  agreements  to                                                               
reflect a  higher value, isn't  that somewhat driven by  the fact                                                               
that  there's a  perceived shortage  of natural  gas in  the Cook                                                               
Inlet basin?   He said there is a general  recognition of greater                                                               
supply there [than previously thought],  although it is debatable                                                               
that more  production is  needed in Cook  Inlet to  help moderate                                                               
prices.   He  also  asked,  "Are they  using  these Lower 48  and                                                               
worldwide standards to kind of drive their negotiations?"                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT responded:                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     I  think  there's  a  "yes"  answer  to  both  of  your                                                                    
     questions.     The  ...  supply   in  Cook   Inlet  has                                                                    
     diminished over the  years to where it  ... now matches                                                                    
     the demand,  and it's  time for  producers to  go bring                                                                    
     new  supplies  to  market. ...  That  contract  between                                                                    
     Unocal and ENSTAR  really is for a  small percentage of                                                                    
     the  production from  Cook Inlet,  but  because of  the                                                                    
     current royalty arrangement it can  start to ratchet up                                                                    
     the value of gas in the entire region.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Number 2833                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG asked whether  [Agrium] ever conducts its                                                               
own exploration  and production anywhere  in the world, or  if it                                                               
simply goes to the market for buying raw materials.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT  answered, "At  the present  time, we  just go  to the                                                               
market to buy our raw materials."   He added that it has become a                                                               
critical issue, however,  especially in Cook Inlet,  and that the                                                               
company is  exploring all possibilities to  bring some long-term,                                                               
reliable natural  gas supplies.  "So  at the present time  we are                                                               
not a producer,  but we don't intend to leave  any stone unturned                                                               
in our search for natural gas," he concluded.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR KOHRING  responded that [the  company] might find  a source                                                               
of  natural gas  in the  near future  if HB  69 passes,  since it                                                               
hopefully will spur  more development in the  shallow gas fields,                                                               
for  which he  said there  is phenomenal  potential in  the Kenai                                                               
Peninsula.  He acknowledged that it is a side issue.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Number 2952                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE KERTTULA  referred to  item 5  in the  footnote on                                                               
page 2 of  the fiscal note, acknowledging that  Mr. Nugent didn't                                                               
have a copy.  Item 5 read:                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     Royalty value  is indexed to  the Alaska  Department of                                                                    
     Revenue prevailing  value for Cook Inlet  Gas (DOR PV).                                                                    
     DOR PV  is forecast by the  Division of Oil and  Gas to                                                                    
     increase from  about $2.50 per  Mcf today, to  $3.12 in                                                                    
     FY  2009,  based  on   the  historic,  long-term  trend                                                                    
     observed over the period 1995-02.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  KERTTULA  expressed  her understanding  that  the                                                               
royalty currently is  based on value and the value  to the state,                                                               
but that  Mr. Nugent's concern  is that the  cost not go  so high                                                               
that the  company is forced out  of business.  She  asked whether                                                               
that is the bottom line.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT  answered in  the affirmative,  suggesting it  is very                                                               
important to  the state as  well, because [Agrium] adds  value to                                                               
the natural  resource before it  leaves Alaska.   He said  if gas                                                               
becomes  unaffordable to  the company  and it  isn't in  business                                                               
anymore - to take  it to an extreme - that will  be a big revenue                                                               
hit for the state too.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
TAPE 03-2, SIDE B                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE KERTTULA questioned, if  gas prices skyrocket, how                                                               
the state could correctly base its return.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Number 2933                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG  asked  whether  the  company  can  find                                                               
producers at a price around $2.00 per Mcf.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR.  NUGENT  said  he  thinks   so,  since  there  are  producers                                                               
supplying gas  to the company for  less than that right  now.  He                                                               
added, "We're very  encouraged with discussions we've  had with a                                                               
number  of potential  producers in  Cook Inlet,  that they  could                                                               
supply gas  to us ...  for that price."   He pointed  out another                                                               
value his company brings to  natural gas producers in Cook Inlet.                                                               
The  utility  market  there is  seasonal,  with  high  wintertime                                                               
demand and  almost no demand  in the summer.   His company  is an                                                               
industrial user that  brings stead consumption to  a gas producer                                                               
year-round, which is valuable to a producer.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Number 2868                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  KOHRING announced  that the  bill  would be  held over  in                                                               
order  to hear  from DNR  about the  fiscal note.   He  expressed                                                               
doubts  about  the  amount  and   said  he  wanted  to  hear  the                                                               
justification for such a high number.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Number 2835                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG noted  that both  he and  Representative                                                               
Kerttula had  a concern about  the definition  of "manufacturer".                                                               
He  asked Representative  Chenault  to review  that  to see  what                                                               
possible  negative  impacts might  exist.    Suggesting that  the                                                               
definition  appears too  broad, he  asked whether  Representative                                                               
Chenault  had  considered  putting  some  "geographic  sideboards                                                               
around  a particular  area" that  would accomplish  his goal,  as                                                               
sponsor,  without opening  Pandora's box  [with regard  to Alaska                                                               
North Slope (ANS) gas].                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE CHENAULT said he'd look into it.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG suggested that if  ANS gas goes through a                                                               
non-LNG  pipeline  "over  the  highway," there  is  an  issue  of                                                               
potential   in-state  petrochemical   value-added  manufacturing,                                                               
which  could have  an  impact on  the whole  financing  of a  gas                                                               
pipeline.      He   cautioned  against   doing   something   that                                                               
inadvertently would even slightly  impact that, and yet expressed                                                               
the  desire to  accommodate [Agrium]  as  a "fine  member of  the                                                               
Alaska  business community  and  a job  provider of  high-paying,                                                               
non-Wal-Mart jobs."                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Number 2720                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR KOHRING  suggested that there would  be incredible economic                                                               
benefits  [to  HB  57],  particularly to  Kenai.    He  expressed                                                               
appreciation  for  [Agrium's]  investment in  the  community,  as                                                               
highlighted in  a handout  in committee packets:   700  jobs; $90                                                               
million  in  expenditures in  the  Kenai  area that  involve  118                                                               
different companies; production,  including value-added products,                                                               
of  $190 million  annually;  and  that it  is  the third  largest                                                               
private employer  on the Kenai  Peninsula.   He said the  goal of                                                               
this legislation is to help  this company and future companies of                                                               
this nature to  feel that they can operate  profitably in Alaska,                                                               
resulting in a great stimulus to  the economy.  He suggested that                                                               
the committee  needs to  draw that  line with  regard to  what is                                                               
being  given  up  in  terms   of  future  state  revenues  versus                                                               
potential  economic benefits.   After  receiving the  explanation                                                               
for DNR's  fiscal note,  he said, the  committee needs  to decide                                                               
whether the gain is enough to offset any loss.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Number 2661                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE FATE asked Mr. Nugent  whether he was free to tell                                                               
the committee what  the company's needed return  on investment is                                                               
relative  to  the  percentage of  netback,  and  what  percentage                                                               
[Agrium] would  pay to stabilize  that gas price to  the company.                                                               
He  said he  understood the  calculations [in  the fiscal  note],                                                               
although he didn't know what figures  had been used [as a basis].                                                               
He  said it  relates  to how  gas  is priced,  which  is "at  the                                                               
netback."  He elaborated:                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     Have  you figured  out what  percentage of  the present                                                                    
     netback  they're enjoying  as a  profit to  the present                                                                    
     facility?   Are you  prepared to  ... equate  a certain                                                                    
     percentage to stabilize that ...?   So, are you allowed                                                                    
     to  compute what  your new  return on  investment would                                                                    
     have  to be  if you  stabilized that  at a  lower price                                                                    
     and, therefore,  a lower netback  to the  producers ...                                                                    
     who eventually make the money?                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Number 2571                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  FATE,   in  response   to  Mr.   Nugent,  further                                                               
clarified  his  question  by  posing  a  situation  in  which  [a                                                               
producer] has a  wellhead price of $3.50 per Mcf  and sells it to                                                               
Agrium at $5.50  per Mcf; the netback is $2.00.   If Agrium wants                                                               
to stabilize that price over the  long term at $4.50 and "tap out                                                               
of it" 20 Mcf,  that leaves the producer 80 Mcf  at a lower price                                                               
than the $5.50;  therefore, the netback to the  producer is about                                                               
$360, whereas before it was $550.   That is where the state would                                                               
realize  its loss,  he said.   The  only way  the state  wouldn't                                                               
realize a loss is if the price  were stabilized at the $5.50.  If                                                               
the price  of gas  went up  then, which it  may, the  state again                                                               
would take a loss, he suggested,  saying it is really based on 1)                                                               
the price of gas  at the market, 2) the netback,  and 3) how much                                                               
royalty  gas is  taken  out, because  it is  taken  out in  kind,                                                               
"which is another argumentative issue in the gas industry."                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  KOHRING  asked  Mr.  Nugent   whether  that  had  provided                                                               
clarification to the point where he could answer.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT replied:                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     I  think somewhat.   I  think ...  what's important  to                                                                    
     understand, the situation  we might be in,  just say we                                                                    
     were  paying  $1.50  for state  royalty  gas  now,  for                                                                    
     discussion  purposes; so  the  state  isn't losing  any                                                                    
     money in that situation.   Then someone comes along and                                                                    
     ... pays  a much higher price  - say, the $5.50.   What                                                                    
     the current  law would do,  then, would ratchet  up all                                                                    
     the  state royalty  gas we  presently purchase  to that                                                                    
     new value.   And in  that particular case,  we couldn't                                                                    
     be able to  afford that gas, so we wouldn't  buy any of                                                                    
     it.  ... We weren't  paying the difference in the first                                                                    
     place between the  $5.50 and the $1.50.  So  I think in                                                                    
     that extreme  example, then, what  ... the  state would                                                                    
     ... lose  if we  couldn't buy  it anymore,  they'd lose                                                                    
     the $1.50 we  were paying in the first  place, and they                                                                    
     wouldn't  make  any  sale, then,  to  our  facility  at                                                                    
     $5.50.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Number 2372                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG   said  he   appreciated  Representative                                                               
Fate's  line  of  thinking,  but   that  Mr.  Nugent's  point  is                                                               
important:     at  some  point   [Agrium's]  operation   will  be                                                               
unprofitable,  and  it  will  stop buying  [gas]  and  shut  down                                                               
operations.    Looking  at  the   big  picture  of  taxation  and                                                               
benefits,  he said  there is  no question  Agrium pays  local and                                                               
borough   taxes,  as   well  as   state  corporate   income  tax,                                                               
presumably.  In terms of total  benefit, he suggested the need to                                                               
take into  account not only  potential foregone  royalty payments                                                               
to  the state,  but also  the  potential loss  of "other  revenue                                                               
sources in a more broad manner."   He proposed looking beyond the                                                               
fiscal note, therefore,  for an economic analysis.   He mentioned                                                               
impact to  the community, employment levels,  and federal [income                                                               
tax] as far as public benefits.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  KOHRING  agreed  with  the  need  to  weigh  the  economic                                                               
benefit.   He added  that he  doesn't necessarily  see this  as a                                                               
loss to the  state, just less revenue generated from  sale of the                                                               
gas, countered by a gain  in economic benefit; furthermore, local                                                               
governments will be  improving their tax bases and so  forth.  He                                                               
said he does support the legislation.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Number 2230                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  KOHRING  asked whether  there  were  further questions  or                                                               
comments.   Hearing none, he announced  that HB 57 would  be held                                                               
over in order to hear from [the Division of Oil & Gas] about the                                                                
fiscal note.                                                                                                                    

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